美欧通胀治理溢出效应及对油气市场影响

Spillover effect of inflation control in the US and Europe and its impact on oil market

新冠肺炎疫情前全球经济呈现低增长、低利率、低通胀、高债务的特点。2020年以来,受大国博弈、新冠肺炎疫情和乌克兰危机等影响,各国实施极度宽松的财政和货币政策。价格普遍上涨又促使主要经济体收紧金融条件,全球经济进入以高通胀、高利率、高债务、低增长、贫富分化为特点的新一轮周期,全球经济增长大幅调低,全球金融市场动荡风险增加,新兴市场国家债务危机风险增加,中国稳增长政策效果遭受冲击。对全球油气供需、价格、投资和贸易等产生了显著影响,主要表现为:石油需求增速明显放缓,石油价格在高位持续较长时间,油气上游投资收益率要求大幅增加,发展中国家石油消费相对发达国家走弱,同时影响油气贸易规模、交易便利程度和交易成本。

Before the COVID-19 pandemic,the global economy was characterized by low growth,low interest rates,low inflation,and high debt.Affected by games among the superpowers,the COVID-19 pandemic,as well as Ukraine crisis,major economies have been carrying out ultra-loose monetary policies and fiscal stimulus policies.Those countries now have to cope with the continued rise of general prices through tightening financial conditions which are causing the world into the cycle of high inflation,high interest rate,high debt,low economic growth,and deteriorating divide between the rich and the poor.Global economic growth has been significantly downgraded,the risks of turbulence in global financial markets and debt crises in emerging markets have increased,and the effects of China’s policies to stabilize growth have suffered,which are in turn making a significant impact on global oil and gas balance,prices,investments,and trades.The main manifestations are the growth of global oil demand is slowing down evidently,oil prices are at high level persistently,the required rate of return for upstream oil and gas investment has to be at high level to compensate the financing cost,growth of oil consumption in developing and emerging markets are slowing compared with the developed countries,and they affect oil and gas trade scale,transaction convenience,and transaction cost.