供应链中断风险对油气市场的影响

The impact of supply chain disruption risk on oil and gas markets

新冠肺炎疫情暴发后,供应链中断风险严重搅动国际油气市场,导致国际油气价格超预期上涨。WTI原油期货有史以来首次出现负油价即是全球供应链中断风险的预演。“供应链的平衡”成为影响国际油价的新因素。新冠疫情暴发前,供应链中断的影响往往是暂时的,而在后疫情时代,供应端受到疫情反复、经济萎靡、交通基础设施不畅、劳动力短缺等多重因素冲击,供应链中断的风险不断扩大。电子化交易加剧供应链风险对油气市场的冲击。全球供应链中断风险暴露了即时生产和低库存(Just In time)管理模式的内在缺陷,也催生了即时生产和低库存管理模式让位于稳产和适度库存(Just In case)管理模式的需求。中国企业因缺少能源定价工具,受制于卖方主导的价格指数。中国应不断完善油气期货生态圈,加快成品油期货和天然气期货上市步伐,鼓励企业积极参与期货套期保值。

After the outbreak of COVID-19, the risk of supply chain disruption has seriously disturbed the international oil and gas market and resulted in an unexpected increase in international oil and gas prices. Negative WTI crude oil futures for the first time is also a preview of the risk of supply chain disruption. “The balance of supply chain” has become a new factor affecting international oil prices. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of supply chain disruption is often temporary.While in the post-pandemic era, the supply side is hit by such multiple factors as recurrent pandemic, economic recession,poor transportation infrastructure, and labor shortage, leading to the increasing risk of supply chain disruption. The electronic transactions exacerbate the impact of supply chain risks on the oil and gas market. The disruption of global supply chain exposes the internal defects of Just In Time management mode, and also gave birth to the demand for real-time production and low inventory management mode(Just In time) to give way to stable production and moderate inventory management mode(Just In Case). Chinese companies are subject to vendor-driven price indices due to a lack of pricing tools for energy. China should constantly improve the oil and gas futures ecosystem, speed up the listing of refined oil futures and natural gas futures, and encourage enterprises to actively participate in futures hedging.