广州市不同流感监测数据的时效性比较

Timeliness comparison of different influenza surveillance data in Guangzhou

目的:分析广州市流感监测数据的时效性,为我市的流感监测以及预警提供依据。方法:研究广州市2017年第1周至2021年第52周的流感监测数据,包括流感报告病例数、流感样病例百分比(ILI%)、病毒阳性率以及流感样病例暴发疫情数,采用时序图比较、计算时间序列交叉相关性以及早期异常报告系统(EARS)进行时效性比较分析。结果:ILI%、病毒阳性率与流感报告病例数以及暴发疫情的交叉相关系数均在滞后(Lag)大于0处取得最大值;ILI%是广州市流感夏季高峰以及其他流感疫情来临预警的较优指标,较流感报告病例数最大滞后6周。病毒阳性率是广州市流感冬季高峰来临较好的预警指标,较流感报告病例数高峰最大滞后周数不超过2周。结论:广州市4种流感监测数据反映的流行趋势大体一致,但它们具有不同的时效性,ILI%与病毒阳性率的预警起始时间大多迟于流感报告病例数以及暴发疫情,这也表明多种监测方法相结合是十分必要的。

Objective:To analyze the timeliness of influenza surveillance data in Guangzhou,and to provide a basis for influenza surveillance and early warning in the future.Methods:The influenza surveillance data in Guangzhou from the first week of 2017 to the 52nd week of 2021,including the number of influenza-reported cases,influenza-like illness consultation rate(ILI%),the positive rate of the virus and the outbreak of influenza-like illness,were used to compare and analyze the time series diagrams,time series cross-correlations and early aberration reporting system(EARS).Results:The cross-correlation coefficients between ILI%,influenza reported cases and outbreaks all achieve the maximum value when Lag>0.A similar result was observed in the virus positive rate.ILI%is a better indicator for the early warning of the summer peak of influenza in Guangzhou and other influenza epidemics,which is six weeks later than the number of reported cases.The virus positivity rate is a good early warning indicator for the arrival of the winter peak of influenza in Guangzhou,and the maximum lag is no more than two weeks compared to influenza reported cases.Conclusion:The epidemic trends reflected by the four sets of influenza surveillance data in Guangzhou are generally consistent.However,they had different timelines.Most of the early warning time of ILI%and virus positivity rate is later than influenza reported cases and outbreaks,which also indicates that it is necessary to combine multiple surveillance methods.