数字经济发展对税收收入的影响分析——来自中国城市的经验证据

An Analysis on the Impact of Digital Economy Development on Tax Revenue——Empirical Evidences from Cities of China

随着经济发展的转型与迭代,数字经济在助力传统产业转型升级、推动商业模式创新变革等领域发挥的作用日益凸显,为税收收入带来很大增长空间。本文以2011—2020年我国289个地级及以上城市为样本,通过数字经济综合发展指数及税收收入等相关数据考察数字经济发展对税收收入的影响。研究结果表明,数字经济发展显著促进税收收入增长,这一结论在对主要税种进行考察后依然成立。进一步分析发现,税收征管强度的增加会强化数字经济发展对税收收入的正向作用。异质性分析表明,数字经济发展对税收收入的影响在东部地区城市、大型城市显著为正,但在中西部地区城市及中小型城市不显著,说明数字经济发展加剧了区域间税收收入差距。门槛回归结果表明,数字经济发展对税收收入的影响存在非线性效应,数字经济发展程度不同,对税收收入的影响也存在显著差异。

With the transformation and iteration of economic development,digital economy is playing a significant role in upgrading traditional industries and business model innovation and reform,which promotes the growth in tax revenue.Taking 289 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2011 to 2020 as samples,this paper focuses on the impact of digital economy development on tax revenue by using comprehensive development index of digital economy,tax revenue and other relevant data.The researches indicate that development of digital economy significantly promotes the growth of tax revenue.The conclusion still works after the investigation of the main taxes.Further analysis shows that as the tax collection and administration are intensified,the development of digital economy increases tax revenue.Heterogeneity analysis implies that the development of digital economy promotes significantly the growth of tax revenue in eastern cities and large cities,but the boost isn’t pronounced in central and western cities and small and medium-sized cities.These mean that the development of digital economy intensifies the gap of tax revenue among regions.Threshold regression results show that there is a nonlinear effect of the development of digital economy on tax revenue,and there are significant differences in the effect of the development of digital economy on tax revenue.