基于分项定额法的华亭市水资源需水总量预测研究

Research on Prediction of Total Water Demand of Water Resources in Huating City Based on Itemized Quota Method

为保证甘肃省华亭市社会经济发展规划与水资源条件相适应,城市发展质量和生态保护能力相匹配,明确区域水资源节约、利用配置的目标和方向,同时提高规划编制的科学性与操作的可行性,开展水资源规划需水总量预测研究。根据华亭市发展现状和相关资料,采用分项定额预测法对区域规划年生活、农业、工业、生态等行业需水量分别进行预测,从而推求区域规划年水资源需水总量。结果表明:华亭市规划年各行业需水总量增幅较大,由现状年2 711.9万m3增长至规划年4 026.0万m3,其中工业与农业需水量较为突出,分别占规划年需水总量的47.7%和29.9%。经分析,基于分项定额法的水资源需水总量预测合理,符合水资源配置编制要求,研究结果可供相关部门和机构参考。

In order to ensure that the socio-economic development plan of Huating city in Gansu Province is compatible with the conditions of water resources, and the quality of urban development is matched with the ability of ecological protection, clarify the objectives and directions of regional water resources conservation, utilization and allocation, and improve the scientificity and feasibility of planning, carry out the prediction study of the total water demand of water resources planning. According to the development status of Huating city and relevant data, the water demand of life, agriculture, industry, ecology and other industries in the regional planning year is predicted by using the sub quota prediction method, so as to calculate the total water demand of water resources in the regional planning year. The results show that the total water demand of all industries in Huating city increased significantly in the planning year, from 27.873 million cubic meters in the current year to 41.107 million cubic meters in the planning year, of which the industrial and agricultural water demand is more prominent, accounting for 46.7% and 29.0% of the total water demand in the planning year respectively. After analysis, the prediction of total water demand of water resources based on itemized quota method is reasonable and meets the requirements of water resources allocation. The research results can be used for reference by relevant departments and institutions.