差异化非农就业比例对农村家庭返贫风险的影响分析

Analyses on the Impact of Differentiated Non-agricultural Employment Ratio on the Risk of Rural Households Returning to Poverty

基于2021年陕西省吴起县342个农户调查数据,利用PSM方法实证分析了非农就业对农户返贫风险的影响。结果显示:当前非农就业家庭贫困脆弱性指数比未参与非农就业家庭低;非农就业并不必然会消除未来贫困,当家庭非农就业受限于被动就业或农业社会保障缺失时,非农就业与贫困脆弱性呈正相关关系;非农就业可以显著弱化未来贫困风险。从提升过低非农就业家庭的就业比例,合理调整过高非农就业家庭的风险等方面提出了对策建议。

Based on the survey data of 342 farmers in Wuqi County of Shaanxi province in 2021,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of non-agricultural employment on the risk of rural households returning to poverty by using PSM method.The results show that: at present, the poverty vulnerability index of non-agricultural employment households is lower than that of households who don’t participate in non-agricultural employment;secondly, non-agricultural employment does not necessarily eliminate future poverty, when households non-agriculture employment is restricted to passive employment or agriculture social security is lacked, there is a positive correlation between non-agricultural employment and poverty vulnerability, and non-agricultural employment can significantly weaken the risk of poverty in the future.Based on this, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from improving the employment proportion of families with too low non-agricultural employment, and reasonably adjusting the risk of families with too high non-agricultural employment.