基于横断历史元分析的中国老年人口家庭养老意愿及变迁研究

The intention and change of family support for the elderly in China based on cross-temporal meta-analysis

目的考察老年人家庭养老意愿的纵向变化趋势,为认识老年人口家庭养老的趋势提供实证依据。方法基于1999—2020年间开展的143项关于中国老年人口家庭养老意愿的调查结果,运用横断历史元分析方法进行研究。结果1999—2020年以来老年人家庭养老意愿随年代变迁无明显变化趋势(R2=0.01,P>0.05);各影响因素子项目在老年人家庭养老意愿选择上除“婚姻状况(P=0.029)”外差异均无统计学意义;受不同因素影响的老年人家庭养老意愿随年代的变化均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论1999—2020年以来受不同因素影响的中国老年人口选择家庭养老人数随年代变迁无明显变化趋势,我国老年人口目前还是更愿意选择家庭养老,且老年人家庭养老意愿仅受婚姻状况影响。

Objective To investigate the longitudinal trend of the family support intention of the elderly,and to provide empirical evidence for understanding such trend.Methods The results of 143 surveys,conducted from 1999 to 2020 on the family support intention of the elderly,were studied using cross-temporal meta-analysis.Results During 1999—2020,the family support intention of the elderly had no significant change with the change of years(R~2=0.01,P>0.05);Except for“marital status(P=0.029)”,there was no significant difference in the subitems of influencing factors for family support intention of the elderly;and there was no significant difference in the change of family support intention among the elderly influenced by different factors(P<0.05).Conclusions From 1999 to 2020,the number of the elderly population in China who choose family support for the aged has no obvious trend of change with the changes of the years.At present,the elderly population in China still prefers family support,and their intention of family support is only influenced by their marital status.