流动性短缺与养老财富唐提化决策--基于多元累积前景理论的分析

Liquidity Shortage and Individual Retirement Wealth Tontinization Decision--An Analysis Based on Multivariate Cumulative Prospect Theory

本文从我国“未储先老”背景下老年人口资金流动性短缺的现实出发,探讨了唐提计划是否能够提高我国居民养老财富的运用效率。唐提计划具有个体长寿保险性质,约定参与人在存活期获得与池内真实死亡率相匹配的每期支付。根据我国人口死亡率数据测算的唐提计划支付流与根据CHARLS数据测算的老年人口资金流动性短缺趋势具有相似的后期大幅上扬特征。在多元累积前景理论框架下,唐提计划的养老价值优势体现在高龄阶段,而且损失厌恶和概率扭曲的存在使这种优势更加凸显,注重长寿风险保护的个体可以通过养老财富唐提化获得比年金化更高的养老总价值。根据唐提计划和生存年金的支付结构和价值优势而设计的“年金-唐提”组合产品,可以显著提高老年群体的养老总价值,提升养老财富的运用效率。

Starting from the reality of the liquidity shortage of the elderly population under the background of “aging before saving” in China, this paper discusses whether the Tontine plan can improve the utilization efficiency of the retirement wealth of Chinese residents.The Tontine plan has the nature of individual longevity insurance, ensuring that participants will receive each installment payment that matches the true mortality rate in the pool during their life.The payment flow of the Tontine plan, as measured by our population mortality data, has a similar late surge with the trend of liquidity shortage of the elderly population as measured by CHARLS data.Under the theoretical framework of MCPT,the pension value advantage of Tontine plan is reflected in the advanced age, and the existence of loss aversion and probability distortion makes this advantage more prominent.Individuals who pay attention to longevity risk protection can obtain a higher total pension value through tontinazation than annuitization.Based on the payment structure and value advantages of Tontine plan and life annuity, the combined product of “Annuity-Tontine” can significantly improve the total pension value for the elderly and enhance the efficiency of the use of pension wealth.