考虑农业保护地因素下的红火蚁适生性分析

Suitability analysis of Solenopsis invicta considering the factor of agricultural protected areas

为明确外来入侵物种红火蚁Solenopsis invicta在我国的适生区分布格局及农业保护地对其分布的影响,本研究基于集成模型预测了红火蚁的潜在分布,并结合农业保护地的面积占比情况进行分析。结果显示,集成模型TSS、ROC值在0.85、0.95左右,预测结果可靠;温度和降水是影响红火蚁分布的关键环境变量;在历史气候条件下,红火蚁适生区将遍布到中国的28个省(市、自治区);考虑农业保护地因素,山东省、云南省、北京市、新疆维吾尔自治区、辽宁省和黑龙江省的部分地区适生区等级升高。

To clarify the distribution pattern of the suitable habitat of the alien invasive species Solenopsis invicta in China and the impact of agricultural protected areas on its distribution, the study predicted the potential distribution of S. invicta based on the ensemble models, combining with the proportion of agricultural protected areas. The results showed that the prediction results of the ensemble models were reliable, and the TSS and ROC values were about 0.85 and 0.95;Temperature and precipitation were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of S. invicta;Under the historical conditions, the suitable areas for S. invicta will spread to 28 provinces(cities、autonomous regions) in China. Considering the factor of agricultural protected areas, the level of suitable areas in some regions of Shandong, Yunnan, Beijing, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Liaoning and Heilongjiang Province will be improved.