基于FCM-CSIs的跨海铁路大桥投资分析及施工组织优化研究

Research on cost analysis and construction optimization of cross-sea railway bridge based on FCM-CSIs

杭州湾跨海铁路大桥是一座集大跨、长联和高墩为一体的超长跨海高速铁路桥梁集群,建成后将是世界上最长大的高速铁路跨海桥梁。项目建设条件复杂,施工条件恶劣,现场有效作业时间短,施工组织及投资控制难度大。为科学合理编制概预算和施工组织方案,控制工程投资,指导设计和施工,需利用数学模型方法开展投资分析及施工组织优化研究。结合杭州湾跨海大桥特点,基于模糊C均值聚类模型FCM,根据桥梁结构形式、桥梁跨度等因素将15个桥梁区段聚合为航道桥、深水区引桥、浅滩区引桥等5类。利用显著性成本分析CSIs方法,识别出钢管桩、混凝土箱梁和钢围堰是影响跨海大桥成本的显著项目。基于灵敏度分析方法,识别出施工用电、钢管桩、混凝土、钢筋、钢桁梁、钢围堰以及大型运输船等7类因素是影响项目造价的敏感因素。研究结果表明:利用模糊C均值聚类模型,可有效减少杭州湾跨海大桥投资分析段落,降低投资分析难度;利用显著性成本分析可有效识别影响跨海大桥成本的关键部位,为合理编制施工组织方案、降低工程投资提供可靠依据。研究成果可用于识别复杂重点工程的关键部位和影响成本的关键因素,有效节约工程投资,合理编制施工组织方案,为类似项目提供新的思路和借鉴。

The Hangzhou Bay Cross-sea Railway Bridge is a cluster of super-long cross-sea high-speed railway bridges integrating large spans, long connections, and high piers. After completion, it will be the longest highspeed railway cross-sea bridge in the world. The construction conditions of the project are complex. The construction conditions are harsh.The effective operation time on site is short.The construction organization and investment control are difficult. In order to formulate the budget and construction organization plan, to control the project investment, and to guide the design and construction, it is necessary to use the mathematical model method to carry out investment analysis and construction group optimization research. Combined with the characteristics of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge, based on the fuzzy C-means clustering model FCM, 15 bridge sections were aggregated into 5 categories, including waterway bridges, deep water approach bridges, and shoal approach bridges, according to the bridge structure form, bridge span and other factors. Using the significant cost analysis CSIs method, steel pipe piles, concrete box girders and steel cofferdams are identified as significant items affecting the cost of the sea-crossing bridge. Based on the sensitivity analysis method, seven types of factors including construction electricity, steel pipe piles, concrete, steel bars, steel trusses, steel cofferdams and large transport ships are identified as sensitive factors affecting the project cost. The research results are show.The use of the fuzzy C-means clustering model can effectively reduce the investment analysis paragraphs of the Hangzhou Bay Bridge, and reduce the difficulty of investment analysis. The use of significant cost analysis can effectively identify the key parts that affect the cost of the bridge, so as to reasonably prepare the construction.Provide a reliable basis for organizing plans and reducing project investment. The research results can be used to identify the key parts of complex key projects and the key factors that affect the cost, effectively save project investment, rationally formulate construction organization plans, and provide new ideas and references for similar projects.