当前国际形势下北极航道利用前景及对我国影响

Prospects of Utilization of Arctic Passage and Its Impact on China Under Current International Situation

2022年爆发的俄乌冲突是长期以来俄罗斯与以美国领导下的北约之间矛盾激化的结果,对全球大国关系和国际政治格局产生持续重大影响。位于俄北冰洋专属经济区管辖范围内的北方海航道构成现阶段北极航运活动的主体,亦受到当前俄乌局势的严峻冲击。该文在总结地缘政治事件对北极航运普遍性影响的基础上,评估当前国际形势对北极航道经济前景的影响,并提出我国应充分考虑西方制裁和全球经济波动等多方因素,从维护我国能源安全、经济安全和通道安全的角度出发,科学和客观地评估当前北极航运发展面临的风险和挑战。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in 2022 results from the intensification of the longterm contradiction between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO), which causes continuous impacts on the great power relations and the international political landscape. Shipping along the Northern Sea Route situated within the jurisdiction of Exclusive Economic Zones(EEZ) of the Russian Arctic waters constitutes the majority of the current Arctic shipping activities, and is severely impacted by the current situation in Ukraine as well. The influence of the current international situation on the economic prospects of the Arctic passage has been evaluated on the basis of the summarization of the impacts of the geopolitical incidents on the Arctic shipping. It is also proposed that China should scientifically and objectively assess the risks and challenges of the current Arctic shipping development with full consideration of various factors such as the Western sanctions against Russia, the epidemic situation and the global economic fluctuations, from the viewpoint of energy security, economic security and transportation security.