关中地区水资源承载力时空演变特征及耦合协调性

Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and coupling coordination of water resources carrying capacity in Guanzhong region

为明确陕西省关中地区水资源与区域发展协调程度,综合运用变化参数可变模糊评价模型、空间自相关分析和耦合协调发展模型,对2010-2019年关中地区水资源承载力及子系统间耦合协调度的时空演变进行了定量评价和全面分析。结果表明:由于生态环境保护力度加大与产业结构合理性提高,2010-2019年关中地区水资源承载力呈不规则“M”型波动上升,均处于Ⅲ级临界状态;经济、社会及生态环境子系统承载力水平差异化增大,水资源子系统承载力滞后性突出,且呈波动下降趋势;空间分布呈“南强北弱”特征,集中于临界和较弱两种承载状态,空间差异性呈波动增大,且以2018年为拐点,差异性由不显著变为显著;咸阳市、渭南市水资源承载力较低,分别是由水质污染严重、水资源利用效率不高所致;水资源、经济、社会及生态环境子系统耦合协调程度呈波动上升趋势,期间增幅为16.3%,均为中度协调状态;城市间差异逐渐减小,其中西安市、铜川市和宝鸡市的耦合协调程度相对较高;水资源承载力主要影响因素依次为水功能区水质达标率、供水模数、农田灌溉水有效利用系数和城镇化率。研究结果可为可持续协调发展框架下区域水资源规划与管理提供参考。

In order to clarify the coordination degree of water resources and regional development in Guanzhong region,the quantitative evaluation and comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the water resources carrying capacity and the coupling coordination degree of the subsystems of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment in Guanzhong region from 2010 to 2019 were carried out using variable parameter fuzzy evaluation model,spatial autocorrelation analysis and coupling coordination development model.The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Guanzhong region showed an fluctuated upward trend with an M-shaped curve,all the cities were at a critical state of grade Ⅲ.The carrying capacity of socity,economy and ecological environment differentiated greatly,and the water resources subsystem laged behind and fluctuated downward.The spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity was characterized by “strong in the south and weak in the north”,and most cities were in critical or weak state.The spatial difference increased with fluctuations and changed from insignificant to significant with 2018 as the turning point.Among the cities,Xianyang and Weinan had low water resources carrying capacity,which was caused by serious water pollution and low water resources utilization efficiency,respectively.The coupling and coordination degree of water resources,society,economy and ecological environment showed a fluctuating upward trend,with a growth rate of 16.3% during the period,which was recognized as moderate coordination state.The difference between cities gradually decreased,and Xi’an,Tongchuan and Baoji reached a relatively high degree of coupling and coordination.The main influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity were the water quality compliance rate in the water function area,water supply modulus,effective utilization coefficient of farmland irrigation water and urbanization rate.The research results can provide a reference for regional water resources planning and management under the framework of sustainable and coordinated development.