基于组合赋权—云模型的珠江三角洲水资源可持续性动态评价

Dynamic evaluation of water resources sustainability in the Pearl River Delta based on the combined weight-cloud model

为综合评价区域水资源可持续性状况,构建基于水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统的区域水资源可持续性评价体系,采用投影寻踪模型和云模型合理确定各指标的综合权重,引入正态云模型确定指标隶属度,建立基于组合赋权-云模型的区域水资源可持续性评价模型对珠江三角洲9座城市的水资源可持续性状况进行动态评价。结果表明:2007-2020年珠江三角洲城市群水资源可持续性状况整体呈上升趋势,到2020年已处于较好水平;区域内部水资源可持续状况呈现东部城市优于西部城市、南部近海岸城市优于远海岸城市的空间分布格局;各子系统之间可持续性等级不和谐,生态环境子系统发展水平较好,水资源子系统、社会经济子系统是造成珠江三角洲城市群水资源可持续性状况存在空间差异的主要因素。

In order to comprehensively evaluate the regional water resources sustainability,a regional water resources sustainability evaluation system was constructed based on the composite system of water resources,social economy and ecological environment.The projection pursuit model and cloud model were used to reasonably assign the comprehensive weight of each index,and the normal cloud model was adopted to determine the index membership degree.Then,a regional water resources sustainability evaluation model based on the combined weight and cloud model was established to evaluate the status of water resources sustainability of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta.The results show that the water resources sustainability of the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration showed an overall upward trend from 2007 to 2020,which has reached a preferable level by 2020.The spatial pattern of water resources sustainability in the region shows that the eastern cities are better than the western cities and the southern coastal cities are better than the far coastal cities.The levels of sustainability among the subsystems are not consistent,the ecological environment subsystem is at a good development level,whereas the water resources subsystem and social economy subsystem are the main factors causing the spatial difference of water resources sustainability in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration.