长江大保护工程建设主体策略选择演化博弈研究

Strategy selection of stakeholders in the Yangtze River Protection Project construction based on evolutionary game theory

长江大保护工程建设与城市运行交织,企业、政府、社会三方利益关系复杂,已有的主体策略选择研究未考虑社会方对工程建设的影响,难以准确反映各方的协同关系,针对此问题,以演化博弈理论及复制动态方法为基础,构建了三方演化博弈模型,并结合仿真计算分析了协同成本和协同效应对策略选择的影响。结果表明:企业、政府、社会三方的策略选择具有趋同性,只有各方策略保持一致时,才能保持稳定;三方的策略选择受协同成本和协同效应的影响,协同成本越低、协同效应越强,则两种策略下的利益差越大,系统越容易演化为选择积极策略;企业和政府对社会的协同效应增加时,会缩小企业、政府各自不同策略选择的利益差,使两者收敛速度有所减慢。

In the development of Yangtze River Protection Project,project construction and urban operation are intertwined,so are the interest parties of the enterprise,government and society.The existing strategy selection researches can hardly reflect the synergetic relationship of all parties accurately,because the impact of the society on the construction is overlooked.Aiming at this problem,based on the evolutionary game theory and replication dynamic method,an evolutionary game model of the enterprise,government and society is constructed,and the influence of the synergetic cost and synergetic effect on the synergetic strategy selection is analyzed combined with the simulation calculation.The results show that the strategic choices of the enterprise,government and society are relevant,and only when the synergetic strategies of all parties are consistent can they remain stable;the choice of synergetic strategies of the three parties is affected by the synergetic cost and synergetic effect,the lower the synergetic cost and the stronger the synergetic effect,the greater the benefit difference between two strategies,and the easier it is for the system to evolve into a positive strategy;the increase of the synergetic effect of the enterprise and government on the society will lead to the decrease of the benefit difference of different strategic choices of the enterprise and government,which in turn will slow down the convergence speed.