美国智库对华政策的认知、根源及其应对——基于智库专家涉华研究的比较分析

U.S.Think Tanks’Perceptions of China Policy,Causes and Countermeasures:A Comparative Analysis of Think Tank Experts’China-Related Research

[研究目的]自拜登主政以来,美国政府继承和强化了特朗普时期的对华竞争与对抗政策,美国各界对华政策认知似已形成高度共识。以美国智库为研究对象,试图分析美国战略界对华政策认知现状与根源,并提出应对之策。[研究方法]选取6家美国主流智库共18位专家的代表性涉华研究,运用文献分析法,比较研究智库专家在对华战略、军事安全、经贸科技、对台政策等4个主要议题上的政策立场。[研究结论]智库专家对华政策认知呈现总体认知趋同、具体议题认知趋异的多元图景,对华政策共识远未形成。中国应全面分析美国智库对华政策认知的多重根源,以制定更加科学的应对之策。

[Research purpose]Biden has inherited and strengthened the Trump administration’s competitive and confrontational policy towards China,since his inauguration.All U.S.circles seem to have formed a consensus on China policy.Taking the U.S.think tanks as the research object,this article tries to analyze the current situation of the U.S.strategic community’s perceptions of China,and proposes countermeasures based on analysis of its cognitive roots.[Research method]This article has chosen 18 China-related researches by experts from six mainstream U.S.think tanks.Literature analysis method is used to compare and examine these experts’policy perceptions on four key issues,including China strategy,military and security,economy,trade,and science and technology,and Taiwan policy.[Research conclusion]It argues that think tank experts’perceptions of China show a diversified picture,in which experts converge in their increasingly tough China policy perceptions in general and diverge in their perceptions of specific issues.This suggests that the U.S.strategic community is so far from forming a consensus on China policy.China should formulate more scientific countermeasures based on comprehensive analysis of the root causes of U.S.think tanks’perceptions of China policy.