基于变权重的高速公路沥青路面使用性能评价与预测研究

Research on Performance Evaluation and Prediction of Expressway Asphalt Pavement Based on Variable Weight

沥青路面使用性能评价、预测是路面管理系统的重要组成部分。为更加准确地对高速公路沥青路面使用性能进行评价与预测,首先引入局部差异法对各个沥青路面使用性能评价指标进行赋权,然后建立高速公路沥青路面使用性能滑动平均灰色预测模型,最后利用贵阳市某高速公路沥青路面使用性能2018年~2022年实测数据进行算例分析。结果表明:相对于现行规范,经局部差异法赋权后的沥青路面使用性能评价指标能够更加客观地反映实际路况;沥青路面使用性能滑动平均灰色预测模型相对误差小,仅为0.579%,能够实现对高速公路沥青路面使用性能较为精确的预测。

Asphalt pavement performance evaluation and prediction is an important part of pavement management system.In order to evaluate and predict the performance of expressway asphalt pavement more accurately,firstly,the local difference method is introduced to weight the evaluation indexes of each asphalt pavement performance,and then the sliding average grey prediction model of expressway asphalt pavement performance is established.Finally,the measured data of asphalt pavement performance of an expressway in Guiyang from 2018 to 2022 are used for example analysis.The results show that compared with the current specification,the asphalt pavement performance evaluation index weighted by local difference method can reflect the actual road conditions more objectively.The relative error of the sliding average grey prediction model of asphalt pavement performance is only0.579%,which can achieve a more accurate prediction of the performance of expressway asphalt pavement.