我国中医药人员配置公平性及“十四五”时期需求预测研究

Research on the Equity and Prediction of Traditional Chinese Medicine Practitioners during the 14th Five Year Plan in China

目的:评价我国东、中、西部中医药人员配置的公平性,预测中医类别执业(助理)医师、中药师(士)、见习医师的人员数变化趋势,为实现中医均等化服务提供理论依据。方法:运用泰尔指数与集聚度分析资源配置的公平性;采用GM(1,1)、二次回归模型BP神经网络模型以及组合模型预测“十四五”期间中医药人员需求。结果:泰尔指数贡献率表明地区内差异是造成人员配置差异的主要因素;按地理配置的中医药人员集聚度由大到小分别为东部地区、中部地区、西部地区;组合预测模型误差最小、稳定性最好,是相对最优的中医药人员需求预测模型。结论:扩大优质资源辐射带动作用,优化地区内资源配置;建立中医药人才培养模式,促进人员流动合理化;优化预测模型,提高数据的精确度和稳定性。

Objective:To evaluate the equity of Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM) practitioner in eastern,central and western China,predict their trends and provide a theoretical basis for achieving equalization of TCM services.Methods:Theil index and agglomeration degree are used to analyze the equity of resource allocation.GM(1,1),quadratic regression,BP neural network model and combined model are used to predict the demand of TCM personnel during the 14th Five Year Plan.Results:The contribution of the Thiel index indicates that intra-regional variation is the main factor causing staffing differences;the concentration of TCM personnel by geographical configuration is from the eastern region,the central region and the western region in descending order.With the lowest error and the best stability,the combined forecasting model is the relatively optimal model for forecasting the demand for TCM personnel.Conclusion:It is suggested to expand the leading role of high-quality resources radiation,optimize the allocation of resources within the region;establish the training mode of Chinese medicine talents to promote the rationalization of personnel flow;optimize the prediction model to improve the accuracy and stability of data.