景观变化的生态风险评价与预测——以河南省洛阳市为例

Dynamic Assessment and Driving Factors of Landscape Ecological Risk Based on LUCC:A Case Study of Luoyang City in Henan Province

基于2000年、2010年、2020年遥感数据,对洛阳市景观格局和景观生态风险的时空分布与动态特征进行评价、分析与预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年洛阳市以林地耕地为优势景观,建设用地、林地和耕地的转移幅度较大;整体景观格局特征变化稳定,其中南部和北部的耕地与建设用地破碎度和复杂程度升高,中部林地的聚集度和优势度升高。(2)洛阳市景观生态风险水平整体较高,风险等级分布较为稳定,2000—2020年风险变化呈先增后减趋势,当前恶化区主要分布在南部的水源、水库以及自然保护地周边,预测2030年风险恶化区将主要分布在黄河流域以及洛河、伊河流域两侧的耕地地区。(3)研究区景观生态风险空间分布存在显著正自相关性且聚集性不断减弱;自然条件为2020年风险空间分异的主要驱动因素,其中海拔、气温、坡度因子解释力较高。(4)南部林地为风险滞后区,风险降低缓慢;中部耕地为稳定高风险区;北部建成区和黄河下游区域为风险频变区。

Based on remote sensing data in 2000,2010 and 2020,the study evaluates,analyzes,and predicts the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamic characteristics of landscape pattern and landscape ecological risk in Luoyang City.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The landscape of Luoyang City is dominated by forested and cultivated land,and the shifts of construction land,forested land and cultivated land are significant;the overall landscape pattern characteristics change steadily,and the degree of fragmentation and complexity of cultivated land and construction land rise in the north and south,and the degree of aggregation and dominance of forested land grows in the central part of the city.(2)The overall landscape ecological risk level of Luoyang City is high,and the distribution of risk levels is relatively stable,and the risk variation between 2000 and 2020 is increasing and then decreasing.The current deterioration area is mainly distributed around water sources,reservoirs,and nature reserves in the south,and it is predicted that the deterioration area in 2030 will be mainly distributed in the Yellow River basin and the cultivated areas on both sides of the Luo and Yi River basins.(3)The spatial distribution of landscape ecological risks in the study area has significant positive autocorrelation and the aggregation is weakening;natural conditions are the main driving factors for the spatial variation of risks in 2020.(4)Forest land in the south is a risk lagging area with slow risk reduction;cultivated land in the central part is a stable high-risk area;built-up area in the north and the downstream area of the Yellow River are risk-frequent areas.