航空运输对疫情传播的影响过程与机制研究--以南京禄口机场为例

Study on the Influence Process and Mechanism of Airline Transportation on COVID-19 Spread:Taking Nanjing Lukou Airport As an Example

本文以南京禄口机场为例,探讨了航空运输对疫情传播的时空格局与阶段特征,并利用决策树模型探究航空运输引致新冠疫情扩散的影响因素及其机制。结果表明:(1)在当前管控水平下,疫情快速覆盖航空网络的风险较小。(2)疫情从前期单中心向后期双中心格局转变,前期传播链复杂,影响规模大,后期影响明显减弱。(3)空路扩散呈跳跃扩散,地面扩散主要呈空港社区接触扩散和“机场-景区”跳跃扩散两种模式。(4)航线流量、流动人口和GDP是疫情扩散的重要影响因素,航线规模中上、1000km左右短途航线的传播风险增大,GDP与疫情传播的关系呈“两头低,中间高”特征,低流动人口与高疫情风险存在一定关联,医疗卫生因素对疫情传播的影响微弱。(5)与空空传播相比,空地传播风险性更大,中小型机场以及机场航站楼、空港等区域应提高风险管控意识。

Taking Nanjing Lukou Airport as an example, this paper clarifies the temporal and spatial pattern and stage characteristics of air transportation on the spread of epidemic situation, constructs the influence system, and uses the decision tree model to explore the influencing factors and mechanism of COVID-19epidemic spread caused by air transportation. The results show that:(1)At the current level of control, the risk of rapid coverage of the airline network by the epidemic is low;(2)The epidemic changes from a monocentric pattern in the early stage to a bicentric pattern in the later stage. The transmission chain in the early stage was complex, the influence scale was large, and the influence was obviously weakened in the later stage;(3)The air path diffusion is jumping diffusion, and the ground diffusion is mainly in two models: contact diffusion in the airport community and "airport-scenic area" jump diffusion;(4)Route flow, floating population and GDP are important factors affecting the spread of the COVID-19. Medium or large scale routes and short distance flights of about 1000km will increase the risk of transmission, and the relationship between GDP and epidemic transmission is "low at both ends, high in the middle". There is a certain correlation between low floating population and high epidemic risk, and the influence of medical and health factors on epidemic transmission is weak;(5)Compared with air-to-air transmission, the risk of air-to-ground transmission is higher. Small and medium-sized airports, airport terminals, air harbours and other areas should raise awareness of risk control..