原产地规则对中国FTA利用率的影响研究

The Impact of Rules of Origin on the Utilization Rate of China’s FTA

提高FTA利用率是落实形成高标准自由贸易区网络的重要抓手,科学估算中国当前FTA的利用率以及决定因素对构建高水平开放格局具有重要意义。文章基于2002~2018年产品层面的数据,利用新的核算方法估算了中国11个FTA的进口利用率,并利用高维固定效应OLS估计技术实证分析了原产地规则对FTA利用率的影响。研究发现:(1)中国FTA的平均利用门槛为13.08%,年均利用率为29.59%;与世界平均水平相比,中国FTA的利用率偏低。(2)原产地规则显著抑制了FTA利用率,尤其是抑制了工业品和中间品的利用率;同时,越严格的原产地规则对利用率的抑制作用更大,而灵活的原产地规则对利用率有促进作用。(3)随着时间的延长,企业遵循原产地规则的成本逐渐降低,第3年后原产地规则开始对利用率有促进作用。因此,制定灵活的原产地规则和降低原产地规则的执行成本,是今后中国FTA战略应该关注的重要方向。

Based on the product-level data from 2002 to 2018, this paper uses the new accounting method to estimate the import utilization rate of China’s 11 FTAs, and empirically analyzes the impact of rules of origin on the utilization rate of FTA with the high-dimensional fixed effects OLS estimation technology. The research results show that:(1) the average utilization threshold of China’s FTA is 13.08%, and the annual average utilization rate is 29.59%. Compared with the world average level, the utilization rate of China’s FTA is low;(2) the rules of origin significantly inhibit the utilization rate of FTA, especially the utilization rate of industrial products and intermediate products;at the same time, the stricter rules of origin exert the greater inhibition effect on the utilization rate, while the flexible rules of origin can improve the utilization rate;(3) with the extension of time, the cost for the enterprises to follow the rules of origin gradually decreases, and the rules of origin will promote the utilization rate after the third year. Therefore, formulating flexible rules of origin and reducing the implementation cost of rules of origin are the important directions for China’s FTA strategy in the future.