中国区域经济趋同的空间异质性研究——来自空间杜宾分位数面板回归的证据

A STUDY ON THE SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE IN CHINA——Evidence from Spatial Durbin Quantile Panel Regressions

中国区域经济增长是否存在趋同,已有的实证文献在很大程度上忽视了趋同速率的空间异质性。本文基于新古典经济增长理论,构建空间杜宾面板分位数模型,考察了中国336个地级市经济增长趋同的空间异质性。研究表明,中国各地市经济增长总体上呈趋同状态,趋同速率随分位点增大呈U型。考虑资本在区域间自由流动,中低增长地区储蓄率作用显著降低。高增长地区受到周边经济带动作用小于中低增长地区,因而高增长地区的趋同速率更大。进一步分析发现,南、北方地区,东、西部地区均表现出俱乐部趋同特征,而中部地区内部表现出分异态势,即高增长地区发散,低增长地区趋同的特征。识别区域经济增长的空间异质性,对于政府更好地实施区域协调发展战略,缩小区域经济差异非常重要。

About whether there is convergence in regional economic growth, the existing empirical literature largely ignores the spatial heterogeneity of the convergence rate.Based on the neoclassical economic growth theory, the article constructs a spatial Durbin panel quantile model and examines the spatial heterogeneity of economic growth convergence in 336 prefecture-level cities in China.Results show that the economic growth of various cities in China is generally converging, and the rate of convergence is U-shaped as the quantile increases.Considering the free flow of capital among regions, the role of savings rate in low-growth and medium-growth regions is significantly reduced.High-growth regions are less driven by the surrounding economies than in low-growth and medium-growth regions, so the rate of convergence in high-growth regions has become greater.Further analysis finds that the southern and northern regions, and the eastern and western regions all exhibit the characteristics of club convergence, while the economic growth of the central region is characterized by economic divergence in high-growth regions and convergence in low-growth regions.Identifying the spatial heterogeneity of regional economic growth is very important for the government to better implement regional coordinated development strategies to reduce regional economic differences.