2022年美国中期选举及其政治与政策影响

The 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections: Political and Policy Implications

2022年美国中期选举以共和党重掌国会众议院多数、民主党维持国会参议院多数、两党在州长层次更加平衡的结果落幕。本次选举仅实现了部分符合历史经验的有限的民意回摆,经济通胀议题对民主党的负面影响被堕胎权争议部分稀释,而前总统特朗普的高调介入也缓解了拜登政府执政不佳对民主党选情的拖累。本次中期选举之后形成的“分立政府”将推动国会众议院两党领导层的变动,反映出两党政治在区域主义意义上的发展趋势,并为2024年大选周期拉开帷幕。本次中期选举将对拜登政府内外政策形成较大影响。在国内政策议程被阻碍或修正的情况下,拜登政府可能更加急于寻求在对外事务上展现领导力。在对华政策上,民主党主导的白宫与共和党主导的国会众议院的共同参与极可能导致当前分歧的复杂化,为中美关系带来更大风险与不确定性。

In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections,while the Democratic Party won a Senate majority,the GOP regained control of the House of Representatives and retained dominance in state gubernational seats. The elections only partially attained the historical law of limited “Pendulum Effect ”,with the negative impact of economic inflation on Democrats diluted by the abortion rights controversy. The high-profile intervention of former president Donald Trump also mitigated the impact brought by the weaknesses of the Biden administration. The “divided government ” formed by the midterm elections will promote bipartisan leadership changes in the House of Representatives. It also shows the trend of sectional party politics and kicks off the 2 0 2 4 presidential elections. The election results will shape both the domestic and foreign policy of the Biden Administration. With the domestic policy agenda blocked or revised,the Biden administration may be more eager to seek leadership on foreign affairs. In China policy,a Democratic-led White House and a Republican-led House are likely to complicate current issues and bring greater risks and uncertainties to China-U.S. relations.