人口迁移与经济发展的空间分化——基于人力资本积累视角

Migration and spatial differentiation of economic development——Based on human capital accumulation

人力资本积累很大程度依赖于知识外溢,该溢出现象不仅存在于不同行业劳动者之间,也发生于人口迁移代际之间。父辈们人力资本累积状况影响了家庭教育状况,该现象在迁移人口中非常明显。基于此,借助人力资本代际溢出的假设,利用1999—2018年省(市)面板数据实证分析了人口迁移、人力资本积累与经济增长的内生关系。结果显示:(1)若生产技术、人口数量及迁移成本等变量保持不变,人口流入地区的人力资本存量越大,迁入的高技能迁移人口量就越大。(2)技能偏向型技术冲击显著提升了高技能人群在迁移人口中的比例,强化了人力资本代际溢出效应。(3)各区域经济的增长路径和稳态特征会因高技能人口分布而产生重大差异。

Human capital accumulation largely depends on spillover,which exists not only among workers in different industries,but also between generations of Migrants.The accumulation of human capital of parents affects the education of offspring,which is very obvious in migrant families.Based on this,this paper attempts to empirically analyze the endogenous relationship between migration,human capital and economic growth by using provincial(municipal)panel data from 1999 to 2018 with the help of the hypothesis of intergenerational spillover on human capital.The results show that:(1)If the variables(technology,population and cost)remain unchanged,the larger the human capital stock in the area of inflow,the larger the number of highly skilled immigrants;(2)Skill-biased technology shock significantly increased the proportion of highly skilled labors in the migrants and strengthened the intergenerational spillover of human capital.(3)When reaching the new steady state,the growth path of regional economy will change significantly due to the distribution of highly skilled population.