从“超脱”到“碰撞”:德国对华政策50年

From Disjointedness to Collision:Germany’s China-Policy in the Past 50 Years

本文提出的“经济地缘—政治地缘”的分析框架,以中德在经济和政治两个维度上的相对位置和距离的变化来解释德国对华政策在过去50年中的调整和变化。两国在建交后长时间内在政治地缘方面相对超脱,外交政策服务于稳定和积极地推进经贸关系的目标,德国对华政策呈现出鲜明的“务实”特征。但随着德国将政治地缘从欧洲扩展到全球,并开始从全球政治地缘结构中寻找德国的全球性大国定位和崛起路径,德国对华政策中经济维度的利益越来越多地受制于政治安全维度的考量,体现为默克尔执政后期的“价值观外交”和交通灯政府的“时代转折”。中德经济纽带维系政治关系稳定性的作用会持续减弱。因此,中国应更为积极地寻求与德国在政治地缘上的共同利益,主动引导和塑造中德关系向符合中国利益的方向发展。

This paper develops an analytical framework by focusing on the relative positions of China and Germany in the geo-economic and geopolitical spheres,in order to explain how and why Germany’s China policy has been changing in the past fifty years.In the first three decades since the two countries diplomatically recognized each other,their security and political spheres were mostly disjointed while common interests in the economic sphere were the foundation for their relationship.Germany did not face any trade-off between economic and political considerations when developing its relationship with China,which explains why its China policy was distinctly pragmatic.With the expansion of Germany’ s political sphere globally,the political dimension of the China-German relationship becomes increasingly complicated and the economic gains are no longer the dominant goal of Germany’ s China policy,which has been demonstrated by the Merkel government’s Values-Based Diplomacy and the current “Traffic Light” Coalition’s “Zeitenwende”.In this context,Germany’s China policy is more determined by this grand strategy than the common economic interests between Germany and China.It can be foreseen that the economic ties between the two countries are unlikely to serve as a stabilizer of their diplomatic relationship so effectively as in the past.