无标度网络下的人群分类传染病传播研究

Research on the spread of population-classified infectious diseases in scale-free networks

为了探究社会网络中传染病的传播规律,进一步精准防控疫情。基于以家庭为单元的无标度网络,建立SIRS传染病模型,结合中心点和结构洞点所在位置分析了传染病传播、扩散规律,通过对模型参数定量研究和数值模拟,得到感染率、治愈率和免疫人数对传染病传播的影响。研究结果表明我国目前的防控措施都是及时有效的,同时发现控制特定人群的流动和提前免疫可有效实现疫情精准防控,为制定有效的传染病防控策略提供理论依据。

In order to explore the law of the spread of infectious diseases in social networks and further accurately prevent and control the epidemic, this paper establishes a SIRS infectious disease model based on the scale-free network of households. Combined with the location of the center point and the structural hole point, the law of the spread of infectious diseases is analyzed. Through the quantitative study and numerical simulation of model parameters, the influence of infection rate, recovery rate and immune number on the spread of infectious diseases is obtained. The results show that the current prevention and control measures in China are timely and effective. At the same time, it is found that the control of the movement of specific populations and advance immunization can effectively achieve precise prevention and control of the epidemic, which provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of effective prevention and control strategies for infectious diseases.