考虑疫情风险与双重时效性的生鲜品供应中断库存控制策略研究

Research on Inventory Control Strategy of Fresh Products Supply Interruption Considering Epidemic Risk and Dual Timeliness

为解决重大疫情引发的供应中断导致生鲜品库存水平振荡,在市场需求随机变化的情形下,建立一个由供应商、配送中心和零售商组成的三级生鲜供应链库存系统,考虑由疫情引起的三种风险情景,引入系统动力学模型对零售商动态库存系统运营进行仿真分析。研究发现:受疫情风险传导系数和变质率两个序参量影响,供应链库存呈现振荡趋势;通过确定不同供应中断时长下的疫情风险情景提出优化保鲜投入策略、安全库存策略、以及共享库存联合提前转运策略有效降低零售端库存水平振荡并使其呈现渐稳趋势,实现产品在交付过程中的双重时效性,达到供需匹配,缓解疫情风险带来的影响,为相关零售企业提供决策支持。

Due to solving the supply interruption caused by the major epidemic, the fresh product inventory level will fluctuate. Under the situation of random changes in market demand, a three-level fresh food supply chain inventory system composed of suppliers, distribution centers and retailers is established. Considering the three risk scenarios caused by the epidemic, the system dynamics model is introduced to simulate the operation of the retailer’s dynamic inventory system. The study finds that: affected by the two sequence parameters of the epidemic risk transmission coefficient and the deterioration rate, the supply chain inventory shows an oscillating trend;by determining the epidemic risk scenarios under different supply interruptions, we propose an optimized fresh-keeping investment strategy, a safety stock strategy, and a joint early transfer strategy for shared inventory. They can effectively reduce the fluctuation of retail inventory levels and make it show a steady trend, realize the double timeliness of the products in the delivery process, match supply and demand, alleviate the impact of epidemic risk, and provide decision support for relevant retail companies.