社会防控与信息公开:重大传染病疫情的演化机理与预测模型

Social Prevention and Information Disclosure: Evolution Mechanism and Prediction Model of Severe Infectious Diseases

世界各国对新冠肺炎疫情的抗疫模式产生了严重的分歧。本文根据中国新冠肺炎疫情防控的体制动员成功经验,将社会公共卫生防控措施的博弈因素与传染病模型相结合,构建了重大传染病疫情演化机理与情境预测的演化博弈模型。通过将传染病传播模型中感染系数参数加以内生化,解释了社会动员体制在疫情初期防控中的关键作用。最后使用感染系数内生化的SI模型分别对美国、意大利和中国三种抗疫模式进行Logistic方程拟合和峰值点分析,并将结果进行比对。本文研究表明,在缺少有效疫苗的情况下,采取隔离和政府疫情信息公开的中国疫情防控模式,在新型重大传染病疫情防控过程中发挥着关键性作用。

Novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic patterns in the world have been seriously divided. Based on China’s novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control system mobilization experience, this paper combines the game theory of social public health control measures with the epidemic model, and constructs the evolutionary game model of the major infectious disease epidemic mechanism and scenario prediction. The key role of social mobilization system in the early stage of epidemic prevention and control is described by adding the infection coefficient parameter in the epidemic model with endogenous factors. Finally, the SI model of infection coefficient is used to fit the logistic equation and analyze the peak value of the three anti epidemic models in the United States, Italy and China, and the results are compared. This study shows that in the absence of effective vaccines, the epidemic prevention and control mode of isolation and government information disclosure plays a key role in the prevention and control of new major infectious diseases in China.