乌克兰危机背景下俄罗斯对外战略调整及基本走势

Adjustment and Basic Trend of Russia's Foreign Strategy in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

俄乌冲突既是俄罗斯与西方关系危机的总爆发,也是俄美之间在后苏联空间和欧洲的地缘政治利益矛盾的总爆发。这场冲突是典型的热战和网络战的混合,是以阵地战为主的外交战、经济战、舆论战、情报战。在乌克兰得到美国持续支持后,这场冲突陷入相互消耗而趋于长期化。在此背景下,俄罗斯放弃与西方缓和关系,团结非西方国家,打破对自身的孤立和遏制,并着眼重塑未来新型国际秩序。这是普京在后俄乌冲突时期对外战略的主要内容和中心任务。俄罗斯对外战略调整呈现出与美西方地缘政治的对抗性、通过军事行动构建多极化以及反对全球化等鲜明特点。从俄罗斯的外交资源和国家实力看,对外战略调整主要基于四点:一是欧亚地缘政治经济重要性的上升;二是俄罗斯以资源丰富和幅员辽阔支撑起大国地位和影响力;三是主动扛起反美霸权大旗,以摆脱被西方孤立的困境和掩盖与西方实力的不对等;四是通过构建多极力量中心来掩盖俄罗斯单独无法撑起一极的事实。

The Russia-Ukraine conflictis not only the general outbreak of the crisis of relations between Russia and the West,but also the general outbreak of the geopolitical conflicts of interests between Russia and the United States in the post-Soviet space and Europe.This conflict is a hybrid war involving positional warfare,cyber warfare,diplomatic warfare,economic warfare,public opinion warfare and information warfare.After Ukraine received continuous support from the U.S.,the conflict fell into a war of attrition and became protracted.In the post Russia-Ukraine conflict period,the main content and central task of Russia's foreign strategy is to give up the detente with the West,unite non-Western countries,break isolation and containment,and reshape the new international order in the future.The adjustment of Russia's diplomatic strategy shows the following distinctive characteristics:geopolitical confrontation with the United States and western countries,construction of multi-polarization,and opposition to globalization.