乌克兰危机背景下中蒙俄天然气管道合作的利益考量及前景分析

Cooperation of China-Mongolia-Russia Natural Gas Pipeline in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict:Interests Consideration and Prospects Analysis

2022年因乌克兰危机升级,欧盟决心与俄天然气“脱钩”,彻底摆脱对俄罗斯能源的依赖。在此背景下,“西伯利亚力量-2”天然气管道便成为俄罗斯天然气“重心东移”的重点项目,也更加凸显出该管道的战略重要性。该管道是继中俄东线输气管道之后俄罗斯规划的第二条对华输气线路,蒙古国一直在积极争取该管线穿越其国境,既解决该国能源短缺和空气污染问题,又为其带来每年10亿美元的过境费收入并创造就业岗位。俄罗斯最初的战略考量是拓展天然气出口市场、带动沿线地区经济发展和进一步与蒙古国实现利益捆绑,俄罗斯同意该项目背后是蒙俄之间的利益交换。对中国来说,该管道可以实现天然气供应渠道的多元化,规避受到西方封锁的风险,也是替代澳大利亚和美国液化天然气的理想选择。尽管天然气管道过境第三国存在潜在风险,但该项目按预期在2024年顺利开工建设,将成为中蒙俄经济走廊的示范性工程,也将对整个东北亚地区能源合作产生积极影响。

After Russia-Ukraine conflict breakout in February 2022,the EU decided to decouple from Russian Natural Gas,which has seriously impacted Russia's gas export to European markets.At this point,the"Power of Siberia-2"gas pipeline proves its strategic importance for Russia.It is a successor project of the"Power of Siberia"pipeline,which is designated to transmit natural gas to China and pass through Mongolia.These two pipelines well indicate Russia's Gas"Pivot to East"strategy.Mongolia has been actively striving for the pipeline to pass through its territory,which can not only solve the energy shortage and air pollution problems in the country,but also bring in a transit fee of 1 billion dollars annually and create jobs.Russia's strategic consideration is to diversify its gas exports,promote regional economic development along the pipeline routes and further bind its economic interests with Mongolia.As a downstream gas consumer,the China-Mongolia-Russia Natural Gas Pipeline will be an ideal alternative to LNG from Australia and the U.S.,and China also wishes to diversify its gas import channels and to avoid the energy supply route blocked by those hostile western countries.Although there are potential risks in the transit of the natural gas pipeline to a third country,the project is expected to start construction in 2024,which will become a demonstration project of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor,and will also have a positive impact on energy cooperation in the Northeast Asia.