疫情背景下的政府稳定性:以中东欧国家为例

Government Stability in the Context of Epidemic:A Case Study of Central ano Eastern European Countries

政府稳定性是各国政治实践中的重大问题,也是政治学研究的热门议题。过往的研究更多描绘的是各国政府在常规状态下的执政状况,所依赖的解释变量也是其政治体系与社会经济发展过程中的一般性因素。新冠疫情的出现意味着世界各国政治经济发展进入一种非常规状态,也对其政府稳定性提出了全新的考验。本文以中东欧国家为案例,从疫情、联合政府类型与民粹主义政党三个关键性因素出发,对其政府稳定性与政府更替情况进行了分析。主要结论是:政府稳定性较低、政府更替频繁是中东欧国家在2021年的主要政治特征。新冠疫情直接削弱了各国政府的执政基础;面对疫情的冲击,在议会民主制模式下盛行的联合政府变得极为脆弱;新一批民粹主义政党尚未适应政党政治的规则与运作模式,对政府稳定性的挑战大于贡献。在疫情背景下,各国政府与执政党都将经受更多的考验。

Government stability is an important issue in political practice and political science research,while previous research mainly focused on the governance of governments in the conventional state.The emergence of the COVID-19 means that the political and economic development of countries around the world has entered an unconventional state,which is also a new test of government stability.Taking the Central and Eastern European countries as cases,this article analyzes the stability and replacement of government from three key factors:epidemic situation,the type of coalition government and populist political parties.The main conclusion of this article is that low government stability and frequent government turnover are the main political characteristics of the Central and Eastern European countries in 2021.The COVID-19 epidemic has directly weakened the ruling foundation of governments around the world;Faced with the impact of the epidemic,the coalition government prevailing in the parliamentary democracy model has become extremely vulnerable;A new batch of populist parties have not yet adapted to the rules and operation mode of party politics,and they pose more challenges than contributions to the government stability.In the context of the epidemic,governments and ruling parties in Central and Eastern Europe will undergo more tests.