考虑需求响应不确定性的配电网模糊可信约束规划

Distribution Network Fuzzy Credibility Constraint Planning Considering the Uncertainty of Demand Response

合理利用需求侧资源是延缓配电网规划和促进风电消纳的有效方式之一,但需求响应的不确定性会对配电网规划产生重要影响。为分析该影响,首先,针对用户参与需求响应的不确定性,引入了分时电价机制下的用户响应模糊模型,阐述了用户响应率误差的变化机理。然后,基于用户响应模糊模型,建立了考虑需求响应不确定性的配电网模糊可信约束规划模型;针对传统模糊模拟结合确定性潮流在校验可信性约束时计算效率低下的问题,提出一种内嵌增量潮流配合模糊模拟的遗传算法,降低了模型的求解难度。最后,建立了配电网潮流越限风险评估指标,用以评价需求响应不确定性对配电网安全性的影响。仿真算例表明所提模型和算法能有效提高配电网规划的安全性,降低由需求响应不确定性引起的节点电压和支路功率越限风险。

Rational utilization of demand side resources is one of the effective ways to delay distribution network planning and promote wind power consumption.However,the uncertainty of demand response(DR)will have an important impact on distribution network planning.In order to analyze the impact,firstly,in view of the uncertainty of user participation in demand response,the fuzzy model of user response under the time-of-use(TOU)price mechanism is introduced,and the change mechanism of user response rate error is explained.Then,based on the user response fuzzy model,a distribution network fuzzy credibility constraint planning model considering the uncertainty of DR is established;considering the problem that the traditional fuzzy simulation combined with deterministic power flow calculation is inefficient for verifying the credibility constraints,a genetic algorithm with built-in incremental power flow and fuzzy simulation is proposed,reducing the difficulty of solving the model.Finally,the risk assessment indices for the power flow limit violation of the distribution network are established to evaluate the impact of the uncertainty of DR on the safety of the distribution network.Simulation cases show that the proposed model and algorithm can effectively improve the security of distribution network planning,and reduce the risk of exceeding the limits of node voltage and branch power caused by the uncertainty of DR.