数字经济、技术创新与产业结构高级化——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Digital Economy,Technological Innovation and Advanced Industrial Structure:Empirical Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data

文章基于2011—2020年的省级面板数据,运用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门限回归模型考察了数字经济、技术创新是否有助于推动产业结构高级化。研究发现:从综合作用效果而言,数字经济发展有利于推动中国产业结构向中高端迈进,且结果较为稳健;技术创新有助于推动产业结构升级,是数字经济带动产业结构高级化的重要传导机制;门限回归模型的结果证明了数字经济对区域产业结构高级化存在非线性影响,在数字经济发展水平和技术水平相对落后的地区,其促进作用更强;分地区回归后发现数字经济对产业结构高级化的影响效应具有明显的区域异质性,欠发达地区能够获得更大的数字经济发展红利。

This article is based on 2011—2020 provincial panel data, using fixed effect model, the intermediary effect model and threshold regression model to investigate the digital economy, technology innovation is helpful to promote high-level industrial structure,the study found that: From the comprehensive effect, digital economic development will be conducive to China’s industrial structure to the high-end, and the result is relatively stable;Technological innovation helps to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and is an important transmission mechanism for digital economy to drive the upgrading of industrial structure. The results of threshold regression model prove that digital economy has nonlinear influence on the upgrading of regional industrial structure, and the promotion effect is stronger in the regions with relatively backward development level and technology level of digital economy. After regional regression, it is found that digital economy has obvious regional heterogeneity in its impact on the upgrading of industrial structure, and less developed areas can get more digital economy development dividend.