基于VIC模型与气候变化的南流江径流影响研究

Runoff Impact Research of Nanliu River Based on the VIC Model and Climate Change

气候变化是流域径流发生改变的重要原因之一。研究两者间的关系可为优化水资源的可持续利用提供参考。基于VIC模型,利用1983—2020年的日尺度水文资料、观测数据以及PERSSIAN-CDR卫星降水产品对南流江流域进行径流模拟实验,结合情景分析法探索气候变化对南流江径流的影响。结果表明:(1)VIC模型适用于南流江流域。VIC模型在南流江流域的率定期和验证期的效率系数NSE分别为0.78、0.70,相关系数CC分别为0.92、0.85,相对偏差RB分别为-9.35%和-12.83%。(2)气温变化与径流变化成负相关关系。率定期中气温增加1℃,日平均径流减少0.10823/s,气温减少2℃,日平均径流增加0.50283/s。(3)降水变化与径流变化成正相关关系。率定期中降水增加5%,日平均径流增加1.2263/s,降水减少10%,日平均径流减少1.5373/s。

Climate change is one of the important reasons for the change of watershed runoff and studying the relationship between the two can provide a reference for optimizing the sustainable utilization of water resources.Based on the VIC model, this paper uses daily-scale hydrological data, observation data and PERSSIAN-CDR satellite precipitation products from 1983 to 2020 to conduct a runoff simulation experiment in the Nanliu River, and combines the scenario analysis method to explore the impact of climate change on the runoff of the Nanliu River.The results show that:(1) The VIC model is suitable for the Nanliu River watershed.The Nash-Sutcliffeefficiency coefficient of the VIC model in the Nanliu River were 0.78 and 0.70,the correlation coefficients were 0.92 and 0.85,and the relative deviations were-9.35% and-12.83%.(2) There is a negative correlation between temperature changes and runoff changes.During the regular period, the temperature increases by 1°C,the daily average runoff decreases by 0.1082m~3/s, the temperature decreases by 2°C,and the daily average runoff increases by 0.5028m~3/s.(3) There is a positive correlation between precipitation change and runoff change.During the regular period, the precipitation increased by 5%,the daily average runoff increased by 1.226m~3/s, the precipitation decreased by 10%,and the daily average runoff decreased by 1.537m~3/s.