粮食贸易对中国隐含碳排放的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Grain Trade on China’s Embodied Carbon Emissions

粮食系统是温室气体排放的主要来源之一。中国作为世界第一碳排放国以及世界粮食生产和贸易大国,在碳减排压力下探索粮食贸易对碳排放的影响具有重要现实意义。本文通过生命周期评估法测算1998-2020年中国粮食双边贸易隐含碳排放量,同时运用面板自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)分析中国粮食双边贸易量对隐含碳排放的长期、短期影响。结果表明,2003年之后中国一直是粮食隐含碳排放净进口国,且中国粮食隐含碳排放净进口主要来源国为巴西、美国、阿根廷等。粮食进口贸易和出口贸易长期和隐含碳排放均呈倒U形关系。中国应在保证粮食安全的前提下适当增加粮食贸易的同时优化进口来源国结构,尽量选择从巴西和美国等经济发达国家进口粮食。

The grain system is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions.As the world’s largest carbon emitter and the world’s largest grain producer and trader, China is of great practical significance to explore the impact of grain trade on carbon emissions under the pressure of carbon emission reduction.This paper uses the life cycle assessment method to calculate the embodied carbon emissions of China’s bilateral grain trade from 1998 to 2020,and uses a panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) to analyze the long-term and short-term impacts of China’s bilateral grain trade volume on embodied carbon emissions.The results show that China has been a net importer of grain embodied carbon emissions since 2003,and the main sources of China’s net grain embodied carbon emissions are Brazil, the United States, and Argentina.Both grain import trade and export trade show an inverted U-shaped relationship in the long run and in embodied carbon emissions.While ensuring food security, China should appropriately increase food trade while optimizing the structure of import source countries, and try to choose to import food from economically developed countries such as Brazil and the United States.