元胞自动机模型在成都市城区城市扩张中的应用

Application of Cellular Automata Model in Urban Expansion of Chengdu City

研究城市空间格局演变,获取城市扩张模式和扩张形态,对研究环状城市发展的特点和方向具有重要意义。针对传统元胞自动机模型单一的转换规则在模拟环状结构城市扩张中存在不足的问题,提出了一种融合时空转换规则的元胞自动机模型,研究该模型在成都市城区城市扩张中的应用。以成都市一圈层和二圈层为研究区,结合多时序遥感影像、高程、坡度、水系和路网,构建马尔可夫状态转移概率矩阵和适宜性图集,模拟研究区2009年、2018年、2027年城市扩张,并分析城市空间格局演变。结果表明:研究区2009年、2018年城市扩张模拟结果Kappa系数分别为0.8397、0.7497,提出的元胞自动机模型能较好地适用于研究区;研究区城市空间结构整体呈环状放射形态,城市南边出现新的增长中心,新增建设用地沿已有建筑和路网分布;基于静态时空转换规则的元胞自动机模型在短期预测上效果较好。

It is of great significance to study the evolution of urban spatial pattern and obtain the urban expansion mode and expansion form for the study of the characteristics and direction of the development of ring-shaped cities.Aiming at the problem that the single transformation rule of the traditional cellular automata model is insufficient in simulating the urban expansion of the ring structure,a cellular automata model integrating the space-time transformation rules is proposed to study the application of the model in the urban expansion of Chengdu.In this paper,the first and second circles of Chengdu are used as the research area,combined with multi-series remote sensing images,elevation,slope,water system and road network,to construct the Markov state transition probability matrix and suitability atlas,simulating the study area in the year of 2009,2018 and 2027 of urban expansion and analysis of urban spatial pattern evolution.The results show that the Kappa coefficients of the urban expansion simulation results in the study area in 2009 and 2018 are 0.8397 and 0.7497,respectively,and the proposed cellular automata model can be well applied to the study area.There is a new growth center in the south,and the new construction land is distributed along the existing buildings and road network.The cellular automata model based on the static space-time transformation rules has better effect in short-term prediction.