人口负增长时代人口规模结构变动对科技创新的影响

The Influence of Population Scale and Structure Change on Scientific and Technological Innovation in Negative Population Growth Era

文章使用正在经历或已经历过人口负增长时代的17个国家2005-2019年的面板数据分析人口负增长时代人口规模结构变动对科技创新的影响。人口负增长时代主要以人口绝对数量的下降和人口相对结构的老化为特征,对国家科技创新能力产生影响。按照经济发展水平、人口规模大小和人口再生产的亚欧模式分类后,实证研究发现:人口结构老化与一国科技创新能力呈现明显“倒U”型关系,变化拐点为老龄化水平达到16.58%;与中等收入国家相比,高收入国家初期应对负增长时代人口结构老化风险的能力更强;按人口规模划分,人口增长率变动与科技创新能力之间的负向关系显著,人口大国承受和化解老龄化后期负面影响的能力更强;与东亚国家相比,欧洲国家由于经历的人口负增长时域长、国家多,其人口增长率、老龄化水平与科技创新之间已呈现出显著的负向关系。当前我国拥有规模庞大且相对稳定的劳动力队伍和科研队伍,高等教育普及程度和研发投入占比仍在稳步提升,对未来人口负增长时代的科技创新发展不必过于悲观。面对将很快到来的不可逆的人口负增长时代,我国应当未雨绸缪,贯彻落实创新驱动发展战略,维持稳定的国家科技创新能力,推动中国经济行稳致远。

Using the panel data from 2005 to 2019 of 17 countries which are experiencing or have experienced negative population growth era,this study analyzes the influence of population scale and structure change on scientific and technological innovation in negative population growth era.The negative population growth era is characterized by population decline and population aging,which has an impact on the national scientific and technological innovation capacity.After classifying 17 countries by level of economic development,population size and Asia-Europe model of population reproduction,this empirical study mainly drew four conclusions:Population aging and the capacity of scientific and technological innovation showed an obvious inverted U-shaped relationship.What’s more,the inflection point was that the aging level reached 16.58%.Compared with middle-income countries,high-income countries have stronger ability to cope with the risk of population aging in the negative growth era in the early stage.According to the population size,there is a significant negative relationship between population growth rate and scientific and technological innovation ability.The populous country has a stronger ability to bear and resolve negative impacts of late population aging.Compared with East Asian countries,European countries have experienced negative population growth for a long time.Consequently,a significant negative relationship has been shown between population growth rate,aging level and the capacity of scientific and technological innovation.This study holds that China has a large and relatively stable workforce and scientific research team currently.Moreover,the coverage of higher education and the proportion of R&D investment are still steadily increasing,so it is not necessary to be too pessimistic about the development of scientific and technological innovation in the future negative population growth era.Facing the coming irreversible negative population growth era,China should adhere to the innovation-driven development strategy with precaution,which can help China maintain a stable national scientific and technological innovation capability in negative population growth era,and promote the stability and far-reaching development of China’s economy.