中国煤炭进口水运航线安全性研究

Study on the Safety of China’s Import Waterways of Coal

为保证中国煤炭水运航线安全科学研究质量,采用不交化路集算法和蒙特卡洛模拟,构建中国煤炭进口水运航线安全性评判模型,针对中国煤炭进口水运航线连续点面临随机性破坏和针对性破坏时,模拟随机中断及针对性破坏重要连续点来评判连续点中断后的OC对间安全性,进而评判中国煤炭进口水运航线各航路及整个水运航线的安全性。研究结果表明,马六甲海峡和宗谷海峡安全性最高,当水运航线面临随机性破坏时,水运航线的安全系数为0.940 5,当水运航线中连续点面临针对性破坏时,水运航线的安全系数仅为0.104 9,煤炭进口受到严重挑战。研究结果对预警和制定替代方案及优化煤炭水运航线提供理论依据。

In order to ensure the quality of scientific research on the safety of China’s coal water transport routes, a safety evaluation model of China’s coal import water transport routes is constructed by adopting the disjoint route set algorithm and the Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, under the circumstances that the continuous points of China’s coal import water transport routes are faced with random damage and targeted damage, random interruptions and targeted damage to important continuous points are simulated to evaluate the safety of OC pairs after continuous points are interrupted, which is followed by the evaluation on the safety of each route and the whole waterway of China’s coal import. The results show that the safety of the Malacca Strait and Zonggu Strait is the highest. When the waterways face random damage, the safety factor is 0.9405. When the continuous points in the waterways face targeted damage, the safety factor is only 0.1049, which means that coal imports are seriously challenged. The research results provide a theoretical basis for early warning, the formulation of alternative plans and the optimization of coal water transport routes.