中国对外直接投资对新型城镇化的影响研究——基于金融发展的门槛效应

Research on the Impact of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment on New Urbanization:Based on the Threshold Effect of Financial Development

基于理论分析,利用2003—2019年中国省级面板数据,构建覆盖经济、社会和环境共20项指标的新型城镇化发展评价体系,借助熵值法,测算中国新型城镇化发展综合指数,并建立含有金融发展门槛变量的面板门槛模型,实证检验中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对新型城镇化影响的金融发展门槛效应。结果显示:样本期内,中国OFDI对新型城镇化的影响存在金融发展双门槛效应,即金融发展低于第一个门槛值时,OFDI对新型城镇化具有显著的推动作用;当金融发展位于两个门槛值区间时,OFDI对新型城镇化具有负效应但不显著;当金融发展跨越第二个门槛值后,OFDI对新型城镇化产生明显的抑制作用。

Based on theoretical analysis,this paper constructs a new urbanization development evaluation system covering 20 indicators of economy,society and environment,and calculates the comprehensive index of China’s new urbanization development with the help of the entropy method by using China’s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2019.Then,this paper establishes a panel threshold model with financial development threshold variables to empirically test the financial development threshold effect of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)on new urbanization.The results show that in the sample period,the impact of China’s OFDI on new urbanization has a double threshold effect of financial development,that is,when financial development is lower than the first threshold value,OFDI plays a significant role in promoting new urbanization.When financial development is located in the two threshold value ranges,OFDI has a negative but insignificant effect on new urbanization.When financial development crosses the second threshold value,OFDI has an obvious inhibitory effect on new urbanization.