中国东部沿海城市群生态效率时空演进与影响因素研究

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Ecological Efficiency of Coastal Urban Agglomerations in Eastern China

基于2004—2018年中国东部沿海9个省份64个城市的面板数据,对东部沿海城市群生态效率的时空演进和内在联系进行了研究,并使用面板Tobit模型对城市生态效率进行影响因素分析。结果显示:在整体上,东部沿海四大城市群生态效率前期下降后期波动,综合效率仍有31.2%的提升空间,生产效率区域间差异趋向收敛,环境治理效率出现明显的城市群间分异,综合效率主要受环境治理效率的影响;在生态效率的时间演进上,京津冀城市群和珠三角城市群呈“U”型,山东半岛城市群呈倒“U”型,长三角城市群缓慢下降;在空间演进上,标准差椭圆和生态效率的空间演进都存在区域异质性;在影响因素上,经济密度和科技水平会对综合效率、生产效率和环境治理效率产生促进作用,外商直接投资对综合效率存在负向影响,产业结构促进了生产效率的提高,区位因素对生产效率的影响不显著。

Based on the panel data of 64 cities in 9 provinces(cities)along the eastern coast of China from 2004 to 2018,this paper studies the spatial and temporal evolution and internal relations of the ecological efficiency of the eastern coastal urban agglomeration,and uses the panel Tobit model to analyze the influencing factors of urban ecological efficiency.The results show that:on the whole,the ecological efficiency of the four major urban agglomerations in the eastern coastal area declines in the early stage and fluctuates in the late stage,and the comprehensive efficiency still has room for improvement of 31.2%.The regional differences in production efficiency tend to converge,and the efficiency of environmental governance shows obvious inter-urban differentiation,comprehensive efficiency is mainly affected by environmental governance efficiency.In terms of time evolution,the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration show“U”type changes,the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration shows an inverted“U”type,and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration decreases slowly;In terms of spatial evolution,the spatial evolution of standard deviation ellipse and ecological efficiency has regional heterogeneity;In terms of influencing factors,economic density and technological level will promote comprehensive efficiency,production efficiency and environmental governance efficiency.Foreign direct investment has a negative impact on the comprehensive efficiency,industrial structure promotes the improvement of production efficiency,and the influence of location factors on production efficiency is not significant.