发达国家菲利普斯曲线为何逐渐失效?——基于后凯恩斯主义经济学的分析

Why Does the Phillips Curve Fail in the Developed World?——Based on Analysis of Post-Keynesian Economics

20世纪90年代以来西方发达国家普遍出现的菲利普斯曲线平坦化现象带来了货币政策有效性的降低,通胀和失业的联系逐步减弱。本文在后凯恩斯主义经济学冲突通胀理论的基础上,结合新凯恩斯主义经济学超额需求理论,指出商品市场上厂商垄断定价能力上升、商品需求、劳动力市场上工人议价能力和劳动力需求下降,这四个因素的变化,是导致发达国家通胀和失业联系减弱的重要原因。进一步分析表明,产业资本转移是影响这四个因素的深层根源。本文以美国实际经济数据为例,构建了一个包含世界其他地区部门的五部门存量流量一致性模型进行模拟与验证,并在存在产业资本转移和不存在产业资本转移两种情景下,对货币政策的有效性进行模拟对比。结果表明,在存在产业资本转移导致通胀和失业联系减弱的情景下,货币政策的有效性确实显著降低甚至有可能形成负向冲击。

The flattening of the Phillips curve in western developed countries since the 1990s has reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy,weakened the link between inflation and unemployment.This paper combined the Conflict Inflation theory of the Post-Keynesian Economics and Excess demand theory of new Keynesian economics,points out that the rising of the monopoly pricing power of manufacturers in commodity market,the falling of the demand for goods,labor workers’bargaining power on the market and labor demand,is the important causes the gradual disconnection between inflation and unemployment in the developed countries.The analysis shows that the transfer of industrial capital is a deep root that affects these four factors.Taking the actual economic data of the United States as an example,this paper establishes a Stock-flow consistency model to simulate and verify the influence of the above four factors,and conducts a simulation comparison of the effectiveness of monetary policy in two scenarios:within and without industrial capital transfer.The results show that under the situation that the transfer of industrial capital leads to the weakening of the connection between inflation and unemployment,the effectiveness of monetary policy is significantly reduced or even negatively impacted.