基于SEM和Multi-agent仿真的装配式建筑设计变更风险管理

SEM and multi-agent simulation-based design change risk management in prefabricated construction

设计变更是影响装配式建筑项目绩效与安全的重要风险因素.预制构件供应链有多个利益相关者参与,系统复杂多变,各参与方信息集成难度大,使得项目难以实现系统有效的设计变更风险管控.在归纳设计变更风险和风险诱发因素的基础上,提出结构方程模型(structural equation model,SEM)与Multi-agent仿真模型相结合的研究方法,根据风险诱发因素识别提出管理策略,结合项目实际模拟管理策略运行效果,从而实现对设计变更风险的有效管控.基于上海市南翔镇的装配式建筑项目建立本体实例库,对结构方程模型实证分析提出的管理策略进行Multi-agent仿真模拟,评估管理策略对项目成本和时间绩效的影响,验证了模型的可行性和有效性.

Design changes represent one of the main risk factors that affects the performance and safety of prefabricated building projects.Multi-stakeholder participation in prefabricated component supply chains involves a complex and changeable system,and information integration of each participant is difficult.This in turn makes it difficult for the project to achieve systematic and effective design change risk management and control.Based on the induction of design change risks and risk-causing factors,a method that combines a structural equation and multi-agent simulation model is proposed in this study.Management strategies are first proposed based on the identification of risk-inducing factors.The actual operational effects of these management strategies are then simulated to achieve an optimal allocation of resources.Based on a prefabricated construction project in Nanxiang Town,Shanghai,an ontology instance library is established,and the proposed management strategies by empirical analysis of the structural equation model are simulated through the multi-agent simulation model.The effects of the strategies on project cost and time performance are evaluated,and the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are verified.