中国城市可持续发展政策效应评估——基于国家可持续发展实验区的准实验证据

Policy Effects Assessment of Urban Sustainable Development in China——Quasi-Experimental Evidence Based on the National Sustainable Development Experimental Zones

国家可持续发展实验区政策是我国推进城市可持续发展的重要举措,科学评估其政策效应对于促进我国城市可持续性的提升有重要意义。本文利用中国206个地级市2002—2017年的面板数据,建立了多时点双重差分模型,以探究国家可持续发展实验区政策与城市可持续性提升之间的因果关系。实证结果显示:(1)实验区政策能显著提升城市的可持续性,且此结论在一系列稳健性检验之后仍然成立。(2)实验区政策有空间溢出效应,即实验区周边城市也会受到政策冲击而显著提升城市可持续发展水平。(3)实验区政策无边际效应,即无论城市的初始可持续发展水平高低,在受到实验区政策冲击后,可持续发展水平都有显著提升,且提升程度无显著区别。(4)在国家可持续发展实验区的建设中,科技创新上的资金投入和公共服务中的人员投入均推动了政策效果的呈现。(5)在国家可持续发展实验区的建设中,缺乏科技创新上的人员投入。(6)国家可持续发展实验区对可持续性水平的推进仍是只达到弱可持续性,有待向强可持续性转变。本研究在可持续发展理论的自然资本、物质资本、人力资本、社会资本四大支柱讨论的基础上,引入绿色核算中的强可持续性与弱可持续性的概念,构建了强可持续性实现路径理论框架,并为中国城市未来可持续发展规划及其相关政策的制定提供了重要启示。

The policy of the national sustainable development experimental zones(NSDEZs)is an important measure to promote the sustainable development of cities in China,and the evaluation of its policy effects has great significance to advance the urban sustainability in China.Using the panel data from 2002 to 2017 of 206 cities in China,a Time-varying Difference in Differences Model is established to explore the causation between the policy of NSDEZs and the promotion of urban sustainability.Empirical results show that:(1)The policy of NSDEZs can improve the urban sustainability significantly and this conclusion is still approved after a series of robust tests.(2)The policy of NSDEZs has a spillover effect,that is,the surrounding cities of NSDEZs will also be affected by the policy and significantly improve the level of urban sustainable development.(3)The policy of NSDEZs has no marginal effect,that is,any of the initial levels of sustainable development of the city,after being impacted by the policy of NSDEZs,the level of sustainable development can be significantly improved,and there is no significant difference in the degree of improvement.(4)When establishing NSDEZs,both the capital investment in scientific and technological innovation and the personnel investment in public services can promote the policy effects.(5)When establishing NSDEZs,there is a lack of personnel input in scientific and technological innovation.(6)The promotion of the sustainability level in NSDEZs still only achieves weak sustainability and needs to be transformed into strong sustainability.This research combines strong sustainability and weak sustainability in green accounting with the four pillars of natural capital,physical capital,human capital,and social capital in the theory of sustainable development.A theoretical framework of the approaches to realize strong sustainability is established to provide important enlightenment for the future sustainable development planning of cities in China and the construction of its related policy.