影响动力煤期货价格因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting Futures Price of Thermal Coal

动力煤期货价格走势直接影响动力煤产业链及金融投资者的经营和策略,因而评估动力煤期货价格的影响因素具有现实意义。综合来看,对动力煤价格影响较大的因素归结为四类:宏观金融、产业供需、产业政策和基差。其中市场化背景下,产业政策最终也能体现到产业供需上。宏观金融是商品价格长期走势的主导因素之一,宏观金融因素对动力煤价格的影响体现为整体商品价格的同涨同跌。产业供需因素对中短期价格具有较强的指引作用,一般幅度较大的趋势性行情往往是由产业矛盾引发的。基差因素对动力煤期货价格而不是现货价格的影响较大,在短期内会对动力煤期货价格构成直接的牵引作用。从长期期货价格研判的权重来看,对于趋势研判,宏观金融大于产业供需,产业供需大于基差;但从中短期期货价格研判的确定性来看,基差大于产业供需,产业供需大于宏观金融。在稳定动力煤价格的各种方法措施中,增加供给,实现供需平衡是首选。而发挥期货及衍生品市场的定价作用,建立期现结合的一体化思维也是非常有必要的。同时要鼓励产业客户积极参与动力煤期货,提高期货市场流动性。

The futures price trend of thermal coal directly affects the industrial chain of thermal coal and the management and strategy of financial investors,so it is of practical significance to evaluate the influencing factors of thermal coal futures price.Generally speaking,the factors that have a great impact on thermal coal price can be classified into four categories,i.e.,macro finance,industrial supply and demand,industrial policy and basis.Under the background of marketization,industrial policy can finally be reflected in industrial supply and demand.Macro finance is one of the leading factors in the long-term trend of commodity prices.The in-fluence of macro finance factors on thermal coal price is reflected in the rise and fall of the overall com-modity price.Industrial supply and demand factors have a strong guiding role in the short and medium term price,and a large trending market is often caused by industrial contradictions.The basis factors have a great influence on the futures price of thermal coal rather than the spot price,and will directly drive the futures price of thermal coal in the short term.From the perspective of the weight of long term futures price re-search,for trend research,macro finance is greater than industrial supply and demand,and industrial supply and demand is greater than basis.However,from the perspective of the certainty of medium and short term futures price research,basis is greater than industrial supply and demand,and industrial supply and demand is greater than macro finance.Among various methods and measures to stabilize thermal coal price,increasing the supply and balancing the supply and demand is the first choice.It is also necessary to play the pricing role of futures and derivative market and establish an integrated thinking of combining futures and spot.At the same time,industrial customers should be encouraged to actively participate in thermal coal futures to im-prove the liquidity of futures market.