基于灰色关联的商品房住宅价格影响因素分析——以安徽省为例

ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS OF COMMODITY HOUSING PRICE BASED ON GREY CORRELATION——TAKE ANHUI PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

房地产业发展具有地域性和资金密集性的特征,商品房住宅价格的变动更是时刻牵动着百姓的心。基于灰色关联度模型,分别从供给、需求、经济3个角度,选取2010—2020年度《安徽省统计年鉴》相关数据,对安徽省商品房住宅价格影响因素进行定性定量分析。实证结果显示,安徽省商品房价格影响因素关联度从高到低排列分别是城镇居民可支配收入、人均GDP、住宅房屋竣工面积、住宅房地产开发投资额、常住人口数量、消费者心理预期、土地成交价款、人民币贷款利率。基于分析结果,提出相关建议,促进安徽省商品房住宅产业健康发展。

The development of real estate industry has the characteristics of regional and capital intensive. The change of commercial housing price affects the hearts of the people all the time. Based on the grey correlation model, this paper selects the relevant data of Anhui statistical yearbook from the perspectives of supply, demand and economy, and makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis on the influencing factors of commercial housing prices in Anhui Province. The empirical results show that the correlation degree of influencing factors of commercial housing price in Anhui Province from high to low is the disposable income of urban residents, per capita GDP, completed area of residential housing, investment in residential real estate development, number of permanent residents, consumer psychological expectation, land transaction price and RMB loan interest rate. Based on the analysis results, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions to promote the healthy development of commercial housing industry in Anhui Province.