货币政策、供需调控与房地产价格

MONETARY POLICY,SUPPLY AND DEMAND REGULATION AND REAL ESTATE PRICE

基于货币政策端、供求两端对2010—2019年间中国35个大中城市的面板数据进行实证分析,研究发现:(1)货币政策价格型工具利率的提升和供给端土地的增加,带来抑制房价上涨的效果;需求端人口数量的增加扩大供需缺口推动房价的抬升;(2)房价对货币政策信号的变动更为敏感,具有较强的金融属性;(3)城市房价分化,房价调控需因城施策。为此房价问题需要房地产市场的内外联动改革,除了注重短期利率工具的运用,仍需因城施策,在外部货币政策的推动下,内部供求两端共同发力才能实现合理有效的房价调控,促进房地产业良性循环和健康发展。

Based on the monetary policy and supply and demand sides,an empirical analysis of the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2010 to 2019,The findings are as below:(1)The increase in the interest rate of monetary policy price-based tools and the increase in land supply on the supply side have the effect of restraining the rise in housing prices;the increase in the number of people on the demand side expands the gap between supply and demand and promotes the rise in housing prices;(2)Housing prices are more sensitive to changes in monetary policy signals and have strong financial attributes;(3)Urban housing prices are differentiated,and housing price regulation needs to be implemented according to the city.To this end,the housing price issue requires the internal and external linkage reform of the real estate market.In addition to focusing on the use of short-term interest rate tools,it is still necessary to implement city-specific policies.Under the promotion of external monetary policy,the internal supply and demand sides must work together to achieve reasonable and effective housing price regulation and promotion.A virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.