面向公众的风险概率信息沟通策略研究

Research on Public-Oriented Risk Probabilistic Information Communication Strategy:A Systematic Review

风险管理中存在大量的概率信息,促进公众对概率信息的理解是风险沟通的重要挑战之一。文章从信息表达角度出发,回顾国内外学者在风险概率信息沟通方面的研究,基于循证系统评价法对面向公众的风险概率信息沟通策略进行证据整合。在系统检索、严格筛选后,共获得57篇纳入文献。利用主题综合法对纳入文献进行信息提取和主题提炼,识别了11个三级描述性主题,经归纳后嵌入5个二级分析性主题和2个一级分析性主题。研究发现,面向公众的风险概率信息沟通策略包括:风险概率信息表达形式方面的沟通策略,如呈现准确的数字概率、灵活使用视觉辅助支持工具;风险概率信息呈现内容方面的沟通策略,如提供线索提高信息可评估性、提高概率信息的个体相关性、选择汇报概率的损益参照点。同时还应注意到信任水平、认知能力、时间压力、信息局限等因素也会影响到风险概率信息沟通策略作用的发挥。

There is a large amount of probability information in risk management. Promoting the public’s understanding of probability information is one of the important challenges in risk communication. From the perspective of information expression, review the research of domestic and foreign scholars on risk probability information communication, and conduct evidence integration of risk probability information communication strategies for the public based on the evidence-based system evaluation method. After systematic search and strict screening, a total of 57 included articles were obtained. The topic synthesis method was used to extract information and topic refining of the included literature, and11 three-level descriptive topics were identified. After induction, five second-level analytical topics and two first-level analytical topics were embedded. The study found that public-oriented risk probability information communication strategies include: communication strategies in the expression of risk probability information, such as presenting accurate digital probabilities, and flexible use of visual aids;communication strategies in the content of risk probability information presentation, such as using clues Improve the evaluability of information, increase the individual relevance of probability information, and select the profit and loss reference point for reporting probability. At the same time, it should be noted that factors such as trust level, cognitive ability, time pressure, and information limitations will also affect the role of risk probability information communication strategies.