气候变化如何影响城市经济绿色增长:作用机制与南北差异

How climate change affects urban economic green growth:Mechanisms and differences between north and south

气候变化深刻影响着人类的生存和发展,也为经济发展方式转变和城市化进程提供了重大机遇.基于2003–2018年我国284个地级市的面板数据,本文系统考察了气候变化对城市经济绿色增长的影响效果、作用机制与南北差异.研究发现,气候变化可能会对我国南北方城市的经济绿色增长产生更大差异.相对于6°C~12°C基准气温区间,气温上升显著降低了城市绿色全要素生产率,且这种消极作用对南方城市更为明显;与之相反,气温下降则促进了城市经济绿色增长,主要体现在北方城市.机制检验表明,城市建设面积扩大不会加剧高温的负面影响,但提高绿化覆盖率可以显著降低高温对城市经济绿色增长的抑制作用,低温对城市经济绿色增长的正向作用会随着能源消费量的增加而下降.此外,气候变化对城市经济绿色增长的影响会在未来中长期持续加深,特别是基于高化石能源消耗发展路径的预测,南方城市的经济绿色增长会受到更大冲击.本文的研究为评估气候变化在城市尺度的经济影响提供了新证据,也为应对气候变化、促进城市绿色发展和区域协调发展提供了有益的政策启示.

Climate change profoundly affects the survival and development of mankind, and provides a major opportunity for the transformation of economic development mode and the promotion of urbanization. Based on the panel data of 284 prefecture-level cities in China from2003 to 2018, we systematically investigated the effects of climate change on urban green development, its mechanism and regional differences. We found that climate change may make greater differences in economic green growth between the north and south in China. Relative to the base weather bin(6°C~12°C), rising temperature significantly reduced urban green total factor productivity, and the effects would be more obvious for southern cities;conversely, falling temperature would promote urban green development and the positive effects of falling temperature is mainly reflected in northern cities. The mechanism test shows that the expansion of urban construction area will not aggravate the negative impact of high temperature, but improving the green coverage can significantly reduce the inhibitory effect of high temperature on urban green development. The positive effect of low temperature in winter on urban green development will decrease with the increase of energy consumption. In addition, the effects of climate change on urban green development will continue to deepen in the medium and long term, especially based on the forecasting of high fossil energy consumption development path, the green growth of southern cities will be more impacted. Our research provides new evidence for assessing the economic impact of climate change at the urban scale, and also provides useful policy inspiration for responding to climate change and promoting urban green development.