基于海啸单位源数据库的南中国海区域海啸数值预报方法

Tsunami numerical forecast in the South China Sea based on tsunami unit source database

基于全球俯冲带板片模型Slab 2.0将马尼拉海沟划分为80个海啸单位源,构建了海啸单位源数据库,建立了基于单位源数据库方法预报海啸的业务化流程。经过与现有海啸数值模型计算结果的比对,单位源数据库预报的最大海啸波幅平均预报一致性可以达到88%,能够满足业务化需求。

In order to improve the tsunami early warning capability in this region, we decompose Manila Trench into 80 tsunami unit sources based on the subduction zone geometry model(Slab 2.0), and construct a tsunami unit source database. Meanwhile, we also establish an operational procedure for tsunami forecast based on the unit source database. By comparing with the results of existing tsunami numerical model, the average forecast consistency of the maximum tsunami amplitude computed by unit source database can reach 88%, which meets the operational needs of tsunami warning.