电力变压器设备风险评估研究综述

Research Review on the Risk Assessment of Power Transformer Equipments

电力变压器的风险评估问题是设备运维及管理人员关注的重点之一。在分析变压器设备风险评估内涵与特点的基础上,梳理出电力变压器设备风险管理体系框架图和风险评估流程图。以危险源识别、风险可能性分析计算、风险损失值分析计算、风险结果评价四项主要过程为对象,重点研究了变压器设备风险评估中的相关方法与应用现状。研究结果表明,目前对电力变压器运行中风险因素考量范围、故障概率计算方法、风险结果可接受度确定及如何量化分级、风险评估结果与其后续运维检修策略如何建立关联等方面仍存在一些不足,将是该领域后续研究的方向和关注重点。

The risk assessment of power transformer is one of the focuses of equipment operation,maintenance and management personnel.After analyzing the connotation and features of transformer equipment risk assessment,the paper sorts out the framework of risk management system and flow chart of risk assessment for power transformer equipments.The paper,taking the hazard identification,risk possibility analysis and calculation,risk loss value analysis and calculation and risk result evaluation as objects,makes key research on the relevant methods and application of transformer equipment risk assessment.The research results show that some deficiencies still exist in transformer equipment risk assessment,like the scope of risk factors,the calculation method of fault probability,the determination of risk result acceptability and how to make quantitative classification of it,and how to make connection between risk assessment results and subsequent operation,maintenance and repair strategy.Therefore,all these problems will be the follow-up research direction and focus in this field.