基于门槛模型和空间计量的交通基础设施投资对经济发展的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Transportation Infrastructure Investment on Economic Development Based on Threshold Model and Spatial Econometrics

以2009—2021年成渝地区双城经济圈的面板数据为样本,运用门槛模型和空间杜宾模型研究公路、铁路投资对经济增长的不同影响。研究发现公路、铁路投资与经济增长之间存在显著的门槛效应,公路投资的门槛特征值为100.552 4,118.934 6,铁路投资的门槛特征值为1.135 6,1.929 9,2.758 7,公路投资对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,且随着投资力度的加强前者对后者的弹性系数呈现倒U型曲线变化,铁路投资对经济增长的促进效果则是随着投资力度的加强而逐渐削弱,同时铁路投资对经济增长的促进效果高于公路投资。从空间角度分析,公路投资对本地经济增长具有促进作用,但对其他城市却表现出显著的负向空间溢出效应,而铁路投资对本地和其他地区经济增长均具有显著的促进作用。

With the panel data of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic zone from 2009 to 2021, the threshold model and the spatial Durbin model were used to study the different impacts of highway and railway investment on economic growth. It is found that there is a significant threshold effect between highway and railway investment and economic growth. The threshold characteristic values of highway investment are 100.552 4 and 118.934 6, and those of railway investment are 1.135 6, 1.929 9, and 2.758 7. Highway investment has a significant promoting effect on economic growth. With the increase in investment intensity, the elasticity coefficient of highway investment with respect to economic growth changes in line with an inverted U-shaped curve. The promoting effect of railway investment on economic growth is gradually weakened with the increase in investment intensity, and the promoting effect of railway investment on economic growth is higher than that of highway investment. From the perspective of space, highway investment can boost local economic growth but has a significant negative spatial spillover effect on other cities, while railway investment has a significant promoting effect on the economic growth of both the local area and other regions.